If your financial plan only works in one set of conditions, you don’t have a plan—you have a hope.
The CEOs we work with aren’t just asking, “How do we grow?” They’re asking, “What happens if the next quarter doesn’t go to plan?” Or “What if it goes better than expected—are we ready for that?”
That’s where scenario planning earns its keep.
But it only works when it’s fast, simple, and actually used—not buried in a static spreadsheet no one opens until year-end.
Here are the three scenario templates every leadership team should keep on hand. Think of them as the toolkit for operating in uncertainty.
1. The Baseline Scenario: Your Ground Truth
This is your “most likely” outcome—the plan built on current realities and conservative assumptions.
What to include:
Current 90-day sales forecast
Committed expenses and payroll
Known changes (pricing updates, new contracts, seasonal shifts)
A realistic estimate of receivables and burn rate
Why it matters:
Your baseline isn’t your best case—it’s your control group. Everything else measures against this. If it’s built on shaky assumptions, the rest of your planning falls apart.
What to watch:
If your baseline is tracking with more than 10% variance month over month, you’re forecasting from habit—not from data.
2. The Worst-Case Scenario: Your Break-Glass Plan
No one likes running this model. But it’s the one that keeps you from making fear-based decisions when the pressure hits.
What to include:
Revenue drops 25–40%
One major client delays payment
A key hire falls through or goes offline
A vendor or supplier misses a deadline
Credit or funding tightens unexpectedly
Why it matters:
This model isn’t about pessimism—it’s about reaction time. If you wait until the dip happens to start planning, you’re already behind.
What to watch:
Build in quick actions: What’s the first expense you trim? What’s your cash runway? Who gets looped in and when?
You’re not trying to scare yourself—you’re building muscle memory.
3. The Stretch Scenario: Your Acceleration Plan
We’ve seen it more than once: a company lands a big contract, then immediately scrambles to deliver because they never planned for the upside.
What to include:
Revenue increases 20–40%
You land a strategic partnership
A new offering outperforms expectations
You have to scale operations quickly
Why it matters:
Growth without infrastructure kills profit. The stretch plan forces you to ask:
Do we have the capacity? The margin? The systems?
What to watch:
Identify what breaks first under strain. Is it cash flow timing? Talent bandwidth? Systems bottlenecks? The stretch model helps you find the cracks before they become chasms.
How to Use These Templates
This isn’t a one-and-done exercise. The strongest leadership teams we work with run all three scenarios monthly—especially when conditions shift.
Each scenario should answer:
What changes in the plan?
What’s the first decision we’d need to make?
Who’s responsible for that decision?
Over time, the power of scenario planning isn’t just about the models—it’s about building a culture of readiness.
Here’s Something to Chew On
Your business doesn’t need perfect foresight. It needs playbooks—not just projections.
The companies that navigate uncertainty best aren’t the ones who guess right. They’re the ones who’ve already mapped what they’ll do when they’re wrong… or surprisingly right.
If your leadership team isn’t running these three scenarios regularly, you’re flying without instruments.
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